- Third-quarter results are unlikely to feature positive surprises
- Despite this, 2020 forecast loan loss provisions are flat since the summer
- Political headaches and unexpected credit issues remain the focus
Last month, the value of the FTSE 350 Bank Index fell below the nadir reached in the 2008-09 banking crisis. That marks a decline of more than four-fifths over 15 years, during which time the total shareholder return looks scarcely better: reinvesting dividends in the sector would still have resulted in a near two-thirds decline.
Against this backdrop, it’s safe to say the market isn’t holding out for many positive surprises when the UK’s largest listed banks begin to publish their third-quarter numbers next week. So far in 2020, the trajectory for lenders has been almost entirely downhill.