Coronavirus has ripped across the world leaving no country unscathed. The world economy is falling into recession, scarred by both a public health crisis and the dramatic action to limit its spread. While lockdowns are now being eased and economies are opening up in most regions, there is still a huge amount of uncertainty over the severity of subsequent outbreaks and what the longer-term economic damage will be.
But one thing is clear, Asian economies are emerging from the pandemic in relative strength. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has forecast the potential hit to gross domestic product (GDP) across a number of regions, shown in the table below. A ‘double hit scenario’ accounts for a second outbreak occurring in all economies towards the end of this year. A ‘single hit scenario’ assumes a second outbreak is avoided. The table shows that the economic impact looks less severe in China, Indonesia and Korea than elsewhere in the world.
Real GDP growth (% year on year)