If quarterly GDP data is no more than a short-term snapshot, then monthly figures are even less indicative (and even more sensitive to subsequent revisions). But with the UK economy showing signs of progress, and a new government likely to be in place, next Thursday’s May GDP data has more significance than most.
The figures should give us an indication of the strength of the economic recovery, albeit any new government wouldn’t be able to claim credit if an uptick does materialise. Revised data released last week showed that UK GDP rose 0.7 per cent between January and March – the highest rate in the G7. That was followed by zero growth in April, but a slight improvement in May looks likely. PMI data released last month suggests June’s figures could be hit by private sector election uncertainty; that’s likely to be a temporary hitch.