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Can the US economy survive weak consumer spending?

An increasing number of economists are pricing in interest cuts next year, although some questions remain on savings levels and spending
November 21, 2023
  • US inflation falls to 3.2 per cent in October 
  • Rates peak could mean soft landing is a reality

'Immaculate disinflation' almost sounds biblical, but slowing price rises and a calm jobs market point to a potential for a recession-free bounce back from this rate-hike environment in the US. The question now is over consumer spending, as major retailers reported sales drops in the third quarter. 

In the year to October, the consumer price index (CPI) rose just 3.2 per cent which was below the 3.3 per cent expected, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a monthly basis, inflation was 0.4 per cent. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose 4 per cent year-on-year which was also just below expectations of 4.1 per cent. The immaculate part of this disinflation period is that the jobs market remains fairly stable. Employment has remained steady in the US. 

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