The European Central Bank (ECB) kicks off September’s round of central bank meetings on Thursday. Following mixed inflation figures last week (the headline figure remained unchanged, but core inflation dipped), few economists believe that the central bank’s work is done – but they are split on whether a further hike will come now or later in the year.
Next week also sees some pivotal data releases ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) and Fed’s interest rate decisions later in the month. Figures traditionally seen as a marker of good economic health (rising wages, strong monthly GDP growth and buoyant sentiment) will be seen as bad news by markets if they imply persistent inflationary pressure.
Last month was a case in point. UK wage data showed that regular pay growth exceeded inflation for the first time in over a year. Though good news from a cost of living perspective, it fuelled inflation fears, and market expectations for further interest rate hikes rose.
Monday 11 September
Japan: M2 money supply, liquidity
Tuesday 12 September
UK: Unemployment, average weekly earnings
Wednesday 13 September
China: FDI
Euro area: Industrial production
Japan: CGPI inflation
UK: Construction output, monthly GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance
US: Inflation, hourly earnings, average workweek, Treasury budget
Thursday 14 September
Japan: Foreign bond investment, core machinery orders, industrial production
Euro area: ECB interest rate decision
US: PPI inflation, retail sales, business inventories
Friday 15 September
China: Energy production, fixed investment, industrial output, retail sales
Euro area: Labour cost index, trade balance
Japan: Retail sales
UK: BoE inflation attitudes survey
US: Export and import price indices, Empire State Index, capacity utilisation, industrial production, manufacturing production, Michigan Sentiment
