When the concept of ‘peak oil’ first emerged almost 70 years ago, its advocates didn’t factor in a war in Europe. Yet after several false dawns – it was first estimated that extraction would reach its apex sometime between the mid-1960s and early 1970s – it’s exactly this scenario that analysts say could ultimately trigger the wind-down of fossil fuel consumption.
The International Energy Agency predicted last October that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would bring forward the peaks of oil, gas and coal demand to somewhere around 2030, as countries accelerate the turn to renewables in a bid to secure their energy supplies and protect themselves against future price shocks.
Yet while the vast majority of new power capacity added last year came from renewables, surging energy prices have led western governments to prioritise fossil fuel production in the short term, and prompted some big oil companies to pare back their green technology ambitions.