There was a time, not so long ago, when Diageo (DGE) seemed to be one of the more dependable investment options within the FTSE 100. Indeed, if you were to plot the beverage group’s share price against the performance of the FTSE All-Share since the turn of the millennium, you could tell at a glance that it’s been a low-volatility, low-beta affair. The stock has proved itself to be remarkably resilient during economic downturns, reflecting the relatively inelastic demand profile where alcoholic beverages are concerned – “relatively” being the operative word.
Unfortunately, things went awry last November when the group warned of a steep decline in organic net sales brought about by a faltering performance in its Latin American and Caribbean markets. The profit warning startled the market, as bosses had reiterated medium-term guidance of net sales growth in the range of 5-7 per cent only a few weeks beforehand.
The share price duly fell by 12 per cent in response, but it could be argued that it had been in a downtrend since as early as April 2022. On that basis, Diageo’s share price decline is in line with its average peak-to-trough fall of 22 per cent recorded during the five periods of prolonged share price weakness since 2000. As with any stock, progress has not been linear, and share price movements have certainly been reflective of financial performance. Yet based on trading volume statistics, the shares have been more tightly held since July 2009 — and it's not difficult to appreciate why.