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How to spot a recession

Investors can look at data points on the past, present and future for signs of an economic downturn
November 3, 2023
  • Historical patterns suggest trouble ahead 
  • But forecasters predict stagnation – not recession – next year

The good news is that we seem to have seen the last of rate hikes. The bad news is that half the impact of higher interest rates is yet to feed through to the economy. Given that growth is already stagnant (GDP rose by just 0.3 per cent between June and August this year), is a recession on the horizon?

 

The past: historical patterns point to trouble ahead

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