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Babcock's rudderless ship

The defence engineering group has been a long-term disappointment for investors, and right now a turnaround looks even further away
October 1, 2020

Babcock (BAB) provides critical engineering services across the marine, nuclear, land and aviation markets. Within these sectors, its primary focus is on defence activities, which accounted for more than half its revenue in the year to 31 March. The group’s biggest customer is the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), and as its number two supplier behind BAE Systems (BA), Babcock does everything from military training to shipbuilding. But despite its defence proclivities, the group has struggled to shake the perception that it is a traditional outsourcer like Serco (SRP) as opposed to a defence contractor like QinetiQ (QQ.). This hasn’t been helped by a long track record of underperformance – its shares have gone from almost 1,300p in 2014 to just 235p now.

IC TIP: Sell at 235p
Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points

Strong order book

Focus on non-discretionary activities

Potential takeover target

Bear points

Aviation weakness

Possible defence cuts to come

Analyst downgrades

Pension obligations

Likely value trap

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