Economies are recovering, but activity is still well below its pre-pandemic peak, next week’s figures should show.
The Office for National Statistics is likely to report that real GDP rose again in August, helped by the Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cut boosting demand in the hospitality sector. This will put us on course for a record-breaking jump in GDP in the third quarter.
However, the level of GDP is likely to still be more than 5 per cent below its pre-pandemic level. And purchasing managers’ final survey for September is likely to show that growth in the services sector is now slowing. With the new restrictions now curbing activity, such numbers will fuel fears that the upturn is running out of steam and that unemployment will rise sharply when the furlough scheme ends later this month.