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How a fiscal black hole turned into a £30bn windfall

Latest public spending figures reveal a huge windfall for the chancellor – but is it what it seems?
March 6, 2023
  • Despite the good news, Budget giveaways are unlikely 
  • Are public finance forecasts too volatile to prompt policy decisions?

In the aftermath of last year’s autumn statement, public finances were reportedly facing a “fiscal black hole” worth tens of billions of pounds. Less than four months later – and with the spring Budget rapidly approaching – public finances seem to be in a much better position: chancellor Jeremy Hunt has found himself with an unexpected £30bn “windfall”. How can government finances swing so dramatically? 

 

Why did the OBR’s forecasts miss the mark? 

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