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A quality UK stock heading on the right track

With regulatory headwinds receding, this stock’s growth potential is beginning to emerge
October 26, 2023

Britain used to lead the way on rail. But systemic funding and planning issues, combined with the fragmented management of the network, has tipped the modern domestic system into a state of chaos. Industrial action has caused misery for travellers already facing rising prices. The scrapping of the northern leg of HS2, meanwhile, has highlighted the expensive nature of public infrastructure and the transport inequalities at play across the country. 

Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points
  • Strong international outlook
  • Techno-regulatory barriers to entry
  • Customer growth
  • Big capital returns potential 
Bear points
  • Residual GBR risk
  • Lower UK rates and passenger volumes

The struggling rail network doesn’t seem to have derailed Trainline (TRN), however. When it publishes half-year numbers next week, investors have been told to expect that group-wide revenues will rise 19 per cent, backed by double-digit growth in all three of the ticketing platform’s divisions. A recent trading update also put net ticket sales up 23 per cent to £2.65bn in the period, while the company’s recent swing to profit has been sufficiently strong to justify a £50mn share buyback programme, as part of a new capital allocation framework.

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