Many investors will think it something of a farce that the UK hasn’t had an election since 2019 yet has somehow managed to appoint three different prime ministers.
The short-lived Liz Truss administration did at least give lie to the notion that individuals can have no impact on policy through the force of their own will. But while Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng may have inadvertently solved UK plc's persistent corporate pension deficits in one fell swoop, the turmoil unleashed on UK borrowing costs and economic stability continue to cause problems for the current administration, and probably the next. Solving this problem, as well as coping with America’s isolationist turn under either Donald Trump or (to a lesser extent) Joe Biden, will make next year's elections both interesting and uncertain for investors – which isn’t typically a situation the market likes.
In short, personalities matter, and the results of November's US presidential election and the UK general election likely to arrive at some point in 2024 will determine the direction of policy at home and geopolitics abroad for years to come.