European stock markets opened broadly in the red on Monday morning, taking their cue from Asia, with Burberry and Swatch weighing on luxury stocks. The British clothing brand has suspended its dividend and replaced its chief executive, warning profits will be well short of expectations. Jennifer Johnson has more on that here. Overnight, Asian shares fell on soft Chinese growth. Q2 GDP rose 4.7 per cent YoY from 5.3 per cent prior and 5.1 per cent expected.
There has not been an enormous reaction in the markets to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. There was some move regarding the Trump 2.0 trade –Treasury yields were higher, the dollar gapped up, Asian stocks fell, and Mexico’s peso fell sharply. But the dollar has come off since and it could be a range of factors at play. One, the assassination attempt only burnishes Trump’s image as a fighter. Trump was already riding high post-debate; the events of the weekend only made it more of a certainty that he would win in November. It also makes it almost impossible to imagine Biden stepping down now. The 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC) starts today.
Bitcoin surged after Donald Trump was nearly assassinated. It's not just he’s seen a ‘pro-crypto’, it’s a fear trade. I think there is a genuine fear about what could happen in America. Trump is talking about bringing the country together. We could see a change… The former president will give a "whole different speech" on Thursday, instead of the planned "humdinger”.
Later today we look to the Empire State manufacturing index from the US. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, is due to speak at the Economic Club in Washington D.C. Earnings highlights come from BlackRock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS). Sterling knocking on 1.30 - let’s see if this marks the top of the range or not.
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The Trader is written by Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto
