- Hopes of an export boom could be overblown
- But will tourism deliver an economic boost?
In a league table of economic growth, the UK would be languishing somewhere near the bottom this year: according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we will be the only advanced economy to face a contraction in 2023. But China would be back near the top of the table – the IMF expects Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.2 per cent (see chart).
As China relaxes its strict pandemic curbs, three years’ worth of pent-up demand will be released. The impact on the Chinese economy will be considerable: economists at UBS expect China’s GDP to expand by almost 5 per cent in 2023, up from 2.7 per cent last year. Between them, China and India are expected to drive half of global growth this year – versus a tenth for the US and euro area combined.