Most people agree that the second nationwide lockdown will destroy more jobs despite the extension of the furlough scheme. This, however, is only half the story.
It’s not just the number of jobs being destroyed that will raise unemployment. So too will a fall in the number being created.
In normal times, huge numbers of jobs are created and destroyed all the time. Official numbers show that between 2001 (when records began) and the first quarter of 2020 an average of 892,000 people moved out of work each quarter – some because of illness, some because of retirement and others because they lost their job. This is despite total employment rising by over 4.3m during this time. That rise in employment happened because even more people - an average of almost one million per quarter – moved into work.